Preview: 5 Marquette vs. 6 Iowa State

The Marquette Golden Eagles will likely face their most daunting task before participating in the Big East and NCAA Tournament: beat No. 6 Iowa State in Ames, Iowa. 

T.J. Otzelberger’s Cyclones only dropped one spot in this week’s AP Poll, and it’s because their one loss was to now No. 2 Auburn in a game the Tigers took the lead with less than two seconds left. 

The Golden Eagles vs. Cyclones will feature two elite defenses going head to head. KenPom has Marquette ranked sixth and Iowa State eleventh in defensive net ratings. 

Shaka Smart’s defensive backbone is built on deflections. Smart makes sure his team tracks deflections on a white board on the bench during every game. It’s simple. The higher the number, the better chance they have to win because more deflections equals more opportunities to steal the ball. 

Marquette is currently No. 1 in the country in steal percentage per possession at 16.9%, steals per defensive play at 15.5%, and steals per game at 12.4. They are third in the country in both turnovers a game and turnovers per play. 

Smart has his team playing physical and fast by design, preying on any weakness their opponents give them. His havoc defensive philosophy utilizes his team’s speed to rotate excellent help defense, set effective traps and jab the ball loose with active hands maximizing turnover opportunities. 

The foundation of Otzelberger’s Cyclone defense is similar to Smart’s. High intensity, active hands, and intense on-ball pressure. Turnovers are the focus for the Cyclones who are 15th nationally in turnovers a game and eighth in turnovers per play. 

Against the Auburn Tigers who were No. 4 at the time, Iowa State built a huge 16 point lead in the first half due to their defensive speed swarming and overwhelming their opposition. Auburn was able to still win that game, but it took everything they had getting hot offensively and tightening the screws on their defense before getting a go-ahead bucket in the final seconds from Naismith College Player of the Year frontrunner Johni Broome. 

Iowa State’s defensive assignment won’t be much easier when Marquette comes to town, because the Golden Eagles have the other player in serious contention for national player of the year in guard Kam Jones. 

Jones is averaging 19.6 PPG shooting an unbelievably efficient 65.3% from the field and 45.5% from three. When Marquette played Purdue who was then ranked No. 6 like Iowa State, Jones recorded the first triple-double in program history since Dwyane Wade in 2003 leading the Golden Eagles to an 18-point win over the Boilermakers. 

Iowa State will need to increase the pressure Jones faces if they want to get him off his game. His worst field goal percentage of the season so far was 55.6% in a road win against Maryland where he dropped 28 points. 

Guard Stevie Mitchell could get a lot of opportunities if Iowa State makes Marquette beat them with somebody other than Jones. Mitchell has shown significant growth in his offensive skillset improving his 3-point percentage from 26.5% last season to 54.5% this year. Mitchell is also knocking down shots at the line improving his free throw percentage to 78.8% on the season. 

Iowa State’s offensive attack is more spread out than Marquette’s, as five players average above 10 PPG. Guard Keshon Gilbert is overall their highest performing scorer averaging a team high 16.5 PPG. The Cyclones’ knock down shooters are Curtis Jones who averages 16.2 PPG on 40% from beyond the arc while Milan Momciliovic scores 12.8 PPG by making 47.1% of his 3-point attempts. 

Marquette, who has a tendency of struggling against bigger frontcourts, may have their hands full with 6’11” Dishon Jackson. In Iowa State’s one loss, Auburn was able to lock him up, limiting him to 13 points and a rough 33.3% shooting percentage. If Marquette can replicate that performance, they will have a much better chance to win.

The biggest x-factor of the game will be the shooting performance of David Joplin of Marquette. He either scores 25+ points or hovers around nine. If he can get hot, Iowa State will have a really hard time finding a way to beat Marquette who is just as good if not better defensively as they are. 

Wednesday night can’t come soon enough as two titans in the college basketball landscape will battle it out in the Hilton Coliseum at 8 p.m. EST. The game will be broadcast on ESPN+.